Flopping a drow

If the flop didn't bring you a made hand, all hope isn't lost: if there's enough cards left in the deck that will help you improve your hand – to make a straight or a flush, for example – you can still contest the pot and make a profit.

In order to decide if it's profitable or not to play a specific draw, you have to learn what are their chances of improving. Let's take a look at the match-ups shown below, with two cards to come:

	VS
37 %		62 %
	VS
31 %		68 %
	VS
16.36 %		82.12 %
	VS
45.86 %		54.14 %
	VS
35.56 %		64.44 %
	VS
25.56 %		74.44 %
	VS
47.37 %		52.63 %
	VS
53.74 %		46.26 %

A flush draw with nine outs usually has between 35% and 50% chances of winning the pot with two cards to come. It can even be a favorite, if you have two overcards to the flop and to your opponents cards.

A hand as strong as two pair or trips will hurt considerably the draw's hopes of improving, without reducing them to zero. A worse situation would be to be up against an opponent holding a better flush draw. It's generally hard to figure out exactly if your opponent are « blocking » your outs by holding cards of the same suit, but it illustrates the danger of playing small flush draws.

	VS
18.69 %		81.31 %
	VS
34.24 %		65.76 %
	VS
30.1 %		69.9 %
	VS
25.86 %		74.14 %
	VS
50 %		50 %

« Open ended » straight draws (that is, straight draw with eight outs, like 7-8 on a 5-6-x flop) are similar to flush draw. When they hit, they become very strong hands, and still have good value against made hands. A « gutshot » straight draw (four outs, like 7-8 on a 4-5-x flop), however, isn't good at all and should be played only in very specific conditions.

A straight isn't as strong as a flush, meaning that you will sometimes hit your straight but still loose against a better hand (flush or full house). As a result, avoid playing straight draws that could loose even if they hit.

On the other hand, some straight draws have the advantage of being way less obvious than a straight draw, especially when the board cards aren't in sequence (like 5-7 on a 4-6-K flop). Many players won't pay attention to a straight if an 8 hits the turn or the river, because there's only one possible straight available – and they sure won't put you on 5-7! So you can potentially win big pots with some draws, big pots that will compensate for the relative weakness of such draws.

Don't forget that all those statistics only apply on the flop, with two cards to come. When you call a big bet on the flop thinking you have the proper odds, keep in mind that you're likely to face another big bet on the turn: if you haven't hit your draw by then, you will have to fold after seeing only one card – not two, drastically decreasing your odds.